The Most Dispassionate RG3 Analysis I Can Muster

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There are only two choices for the Redskins when it comes to Robert Griffin III.

1. Stay the course
2. Get somebody else

If you decide to get somebody else, then you must ask yourself these two questions.

1. WHEN do you go get somebody else?
2. WHO do you think will be better?

If you endeavor to “get somebody else” then a third element of that decision is a complicated question of: “Is there somebody special in this year’s draft, and are we going to be in position to draft him?”

We saw how expensive it can be when you really want somebody, but are “out of position” to draft him.

Therefore, I am a big proponent of “stay the course.”

I am also not ashamed to say I am a fan of Griffin as a person. I think he’s a disciplined athlete who wants to be great, and puts in the hours trying to get there. I think he can be a good leader, if supported by his organization. I think there’s enough raw material in him to be a Pro Bowl caliber player.

That said…. I understand the anti-RG3 voices.

Griffin is far from where everyone would have hoped at this point in his career. In fact, he may be more damaged goods, than finished product. He holds the ball too long. He mashes the “X button” for “escape” too frequently, and may not realize that button is no longer functional. He can often seem blind to recognizing open receivers in a timely fashion.

He tweets a whole bucket of self-indulgent nonsense.

There will be a decision coming up for the Redskins in May. If the team picks up his 5th year option on his rookie contract, it’ll be EXPENSIVE. Something like $16-18 million for that one season alone, guaranteed for injury.

If they decide to NOT pick up that option, then Griffin enters next year as a resounding lame duck QB. You could gently convince RG3 to “prove it” in 2015 for the new deal. But it would be a heads you win, tails you lose situation.

If Griffin plays well, and the team starts winning in 2015, then you would have to pay him a new contract, or hit him with the franchise tag for 2016.

The franchise tag for QB’s? About $16-18M. 

The effective public dynamic of not picking up that option next May, would be a resounding vote of “no-confidence” in Griffin’s ability to be an above replacement caliber starter. It would play very poorly in this town and in this organization, which seems to breed controversy at QB like mold in a co-ed’s dorm fridge.

There are some who would like to cut the cord on Griffin after this season, unless he starts lighting it up – and quickly. They say the original exorbitant cost of acquisition (3 high first rounders, plus a second) should not factor into any decision. It’s a “sunk cost” some say, so just let it go.

I do not agree.

I think barring another crushing, mobility impacting injury between now and May, you need to pick up that 5th year option, despite the steep price. If you spent $11.25 million on Brian Orakpo for 7 games, a torn pectoral muscle, and exactly half of a sack – then shit, one more year of a possible starting QB would be an easy check to write.

I present the following chart of numbers, so we can compare “apples to apples” so to speak on QB’s of similar style and age. Draw your own conclusions, and use the chart as ammo for your arguments, either for or against.

Just make a note of that “Team Win %” number for each team, and ask yourself: “Hmmm… maybe there’s more to this franchise’s suckitude, than just the QB?”

QB compare

 

 

 

14 COMMENTS

  1. It looks like Oakland will be the leader in the Mariotta sweep-stakes. They already have a franchise QB prospect and need help everywhere else so they need more picks not high picks. I’m guessing Buffalo might trade away even more picks to get the first overall because it seems like they have everything they need besides a good starting QB. Tampa Bay may be willing to bite, as well. I think the Redskins should probably just go after another project in the middle rounds and stick with RG3. Washington needs Oline help and defensive help, but their offense is pretty good as far as weapons go, so if RG3 can develop at least a little then they should be pretty well placed to compete next year.

    • “if RG3 can develop at least a little then they should be pretty well placed to compete next year”

      Well-placed? How?? Hope that the DEA arrests the other NFC East teams before Week 17?

      Every team over-rates their own players, but it seems to be especially bad in Washington. I’m sick of hearing how much talent we have at the skill positions.

      So we have some above-average receivers and a good RB. Awesome! I bet no one else in the NFL has that combination either.

    • As a Bills fan, I wish I could agree and say my team has enough ammo to up to first overall…but the Bills don’t even get a first round pick in 2015. When they made the move fro Watkins, the Bills traded their 2015 first rounder. Sammy’s awesome, but that price may prove costly when it comes to drafting (yet another) QB.

  2. Keep him and invest in “BIG UGLIES” (c) Doc. Your boy Galdi is insane- by his “metrics” Griffin both holds the ball too long AND doesn’t extend plays in the pocket enough…

    Griffin COULD be a legit “the team always has a chance to win” starting QB- the difficulty will be getting BeeGees (Bruce/Gruden/Griffin) on the same page.

  3. You make a lot of great points here but there is one thing I think you missed.

    If you are of the get a new QB route what makes you think that things will be different for anyone playing behind this God awful offensive line?

    My point is this . . . until there is an average quality pass blocking offensive line in place (preferably better) for the Redskins I see no point whatsoever in investing in another QB.

    To toot my own horn I made this same argument before RGIII was drafted.

    How many more potentially adequate QB’s does this franchise need to draft before they will learn that without the rest of the requisite weapons on offense drafting a QB high makes little to no difference? They need two guards and a right tackle before they even consider a new QB. Now maybe the current RT will get there but as I have been saying for years the biggest problem on this team (offensively) is not the QB it is the offensive line.

    I hope I do not sound like one of those bring back the Hogs idiots . . . I know that is not possible with the salary cap. I just want a player at each offensive line position who is average or better at every aspect of offensive line play (not just zone run blocking Mike Shannahan). I am willing to be patient I am just saying that without that spending draft picks on QB does not seem wise.

    I mean the Redskins have already done that with Jason Campbell and RGIII . . . they put them behind bad lines and we saw their game play deteriorate year by year. Maybe it is not too late to resurrect RGIII I hope not. But please if the front office is listening learn from the mistakes of the past!

  4. I think you meant to say, “heads he wins, tails skins lose.”. Easy to spot with 50/50 hindsight!

    Otherwise good analysis. I’d prefer to build the team around a grateful backup.

  5. czabe you need to take the blinders off my friend. I’ve been saying for two years I didn’t think this guy was very good. not accurate, can’t seem to process coverage’s. if the first option is covered he morphs into vince young and sand lot football.
    16-18 mill for him? you must be out of your minds! for what 12 games of below average drama fueled qb’ing.
    you’re better off picking up a veteran like Orton and saving yourselves 12 mill a year.

  6. It was my understanding that the 5th year option was not Franchise tag $$$, but Transition tender $$$? So, it should be the average of the top 10 paid at the position. This would make it about $11.25 million, which is still a lot of money, but not in the $16-18 million range.

  7. Keeping RG3 is like keeping a stray dog that has destroyed furniture, bitten furniture, and S’d all over the house- but sure looks really cute.

  8. I think “stay the course” is the proper prescription. You have seen the damage done when a franchise reaches too far to get that “perfect” QB. You have to have the perfect balance of a guy falling to you and you needing a QB in order for it to work out. When the Ravens got Flacco, they first traded DOWN from #8 and got extra picks. Then they waited for Flacco to fall to 18 and grabbed him there. They did NOT trade away the farm to go up and get Matt Ryan. Flacco has been solid, if unspectacular, and he has led the Ravens to a Super Bowl already. Ryan…. not so much.

  9. Your statistics box includes pre-injury RGIII numbers. Completely useless in 2014. As Rick Pitino once said, “An RG III with two healthy legs is not walking through that door.”

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