Last year, my baseball gambling degenerate “Mr. X” – (real name: you don’t need to know…) delivered not just another DOCUMENTED 3-1 record on over/under plays for my listeners and readers, but he also rung the bell on the Cubs-Indians World Series at 50-1.
Don’t believe me? Fine. There’s audio out there from last year’s reveal, and I’ve been taking his steam since 2000. How did we meet? On the radio, of course. He emailed me saying how he appreciated the fact I would talk point spreads and gambling every now and then (remember, it was 2000 in sports talk radio, where not many people did this) and offered me a few of his season baseball plays.
I took them down, and since I didn’t have a bookie, forgot about them all summer.
The following year, he went 5-1. I then said: “Put a hundred down for me on each of next year’s plays.”
Boom. He went 7-1.
At that point, being a small time player and chicken, I pulled back. Thinking for sure, he would backslide.
Boom. He went 9-2.
By now, Mr. X had become a regular on my radio show, and the pressure was mounting on him to deliver like in years past. Sure enough, he finally crashed, with a 3-4 season.
His following years records can be found below in his email to me (PS: It’s NOT bragging, when you have this kind of documented success) and the rest is history. He’s truly amazing at sniffing out the general “arc” of how a handful of mid-priced MLB teams season will go.
He might even be a witch. I don’t know.
Whatever the case, when people ask for his numbers this time of year, I deliver them to you. That way you can have them ahead of the season, lest anyone cry bullshit on his accuracy. He TRIED to “retire” a few years ago, knowing that such a blistering pace was bound to cool down.
We didn’t let him.
So with that…. here’s his email to me. And like Furio once famously said: “Bet wit yo head… no over it!”
Began sending you predictions in the 2000 season. Went 6-0 that year, followed by 5-1 the next year. The Czabe, (always a sharp eye for young talent), took note! Began doing the show in 2002 and has posted a winning year in all but one year (2004). Really took notice in 2003 when X touted his Marlins play at 200-1 to win the NL. Winner.
After the 2013 season, Mr X had a documented record of picking over/under season totals of 66-17! Realizing that he was just a single win shy of getting to an unheard of 80%, he decided at Czabe Vegas to release the “one pick, touched by God”, and then retire. It hit (Yankees under), and he was at an even 80% (67-17) over 14 years. But would we let him retire? No. The next 2 years, he again released 1 pick at CzabeVegas, and of course both came home. He now has a record on the show of 71-18 over 17 years, still an 80% clip. And, over the last 8 years, he’s actually even hotter, going 26-4 since 2009.
Last year, on this show, he gave us his “top pick” of Indians over 85 and added they just might win the AL. He also went 3-1 on his “other selections”, hitting AZ under, STL under, Cubs over, but missing perfection as the Orioles under lost by oh, about a mile! As a parting nugget last year, on this very show, he gave us a “World Series Matchup” of Clev vs Cubs, a 50-1 shot. WWCD!
So, after hitting that, what else can he do?
Question: MR X, do you ever feel like you have been so WHITE HOT, that you just can’t keep this up?
Now, on to this year:
Fellas, I’m sorry, but I have NOT finished the AL yet. I’ve only done the NL.
Philly under 73.5. The NL has about 6 teams that can’t compete, period. While I was tempted to find which one of them can emerge from the pack and play OVER, I decided easier to realize that Philly may be the worst (if it’s not SD). Philly was one of the luckiest teams last year, they are very young – but they make up for that by being NOT GOOD AT ALL. I love them under 70.5. Also, elevating to top play as I like each other NLEast team over. Always a good combo.
Cincy under 70.5. If Joey Votto continues to refuse to waive his no trade clause, Cincy can flirt with 70Wins. But really, how long can he do that? When you take him out of the lineup, they really are by far the worst team in NL, and the worst team losses about 100. I can win this under with Votto, it’s a cake walk when they finally trade him.
One of them is the worst, and the worst always losses 95+. They can both get there.
Braves over 74. This team was absolutely woeful for 100 games last year, but played very well the last 60. They can possibly get as high as 78-80. I don’t like overs, but this one can get there. Only thing giving Philly the nod over them is that I lean over on all 4 others in the division, so harder road for Philly.
Colorado under 81. Really? This line is inflated like the Rockies offense at Coors. They put up numbers on offense, but it’s a mirage. They suck on the road. Their pitchers get exhausted throwing at Coors. They are a sexy pick over – but, I’m not a sexy pick guy. It catches up with them and their ceiling is no more than 75-76.
Those are 4 very good plays. It probably goes 3-1……but I can’t find the “1”! ☺
NL Division Winners
Nationals, Cubs, Giants – yes, the Giants at +190 to win West is a decent odds play in NL.
Wild Cards – only 3 possible, LAD/NYM, with surprising Cards just missing. Those 7 are just so much better than the rest, I can’t see any long shots worth even a token.
AL Division winners
Boston, Clev, Houston, no surprises.
Wild Cards: Texas and I’ll go with long shot TB.
This year’s long shot play: Astros vs Nationals in World Series at 40-1.
Historical Chart from Czabe Shows
2000 - 6-0 2001 - 5-1 2002 - 7-1 2003 - 9-2 2004 - 3-4 2005 - 6-2 2006 - 4-1 2007 - 2-2 2008 - 3-1 2009 - 3-0 2010 - 6-1 2011 - 7-2 2012 - 3-0 2014 - 1-0 (Tries to "retire" at 67-17) 2015 - 1-0 2016 - 3-1 TOTAL 71-18 (.812)
Hmmm. This will be useful in tempering Phillies rebuilding enthusiasm.
Did Mr X ever come back and do the AL?
Sorry to tell Mr. X and all of his followers that I bet on these lines and if one out of 4 comes in I will be surprised. Sorry I jinxed you all.