Okay, I warn you: the following story… is 100% real.
As many listeners may know, I have a friend/acquaintance/gambler buddy who has been calling into my show sporadically for 14 years! He is a gentleman and a gambler. Big time.
Let’s call him a “Degentleman.”
He prefers to be called, simply: “Mr. X.”
While “Mr X. is pretty darn good at sizing up football games, the NCAA tournament, and other random sporting wagers, his real superpower is baseball.
Specifically: Season totals over/under.
In fact, that superpower is like X-Ray-Fucking-Vision! I have vetted his email to me, as he unveils his white smoke picks for the 2014 baseball season, and I can vouch for his account… 100 percent!
FROM: Mr. X
RE: 2014 Baseball Totals
First, let’s get to the “Czabe History”:
14 years: 65-17, 79.3%
First year, (2000), I emailed picks to you and went 6-0. They all won so easily, you took note!
We started discussing on air in 2001. Went 5-1 in 2001 and 7-1 in 2002 and never looked back.
Lost in 2004 (3 – 4) and went 2-2 in 2007. Only “bad years” were the 2 years the Red Sox won? Broke that last year though. And, the 2 “bad years” went 5-6, which is not exactly a big loser!
By my calculations – I need to just go 1-0 this year – to get over 80% for the 15 year run….then I can “retire” with an 80% clip. Like Brandon Lang in that movie, the pressure gets greater – when it ought to get easier. Folks just keep PRESSING their bets, and demand winners, “lately”.
Before I get to my one, “solid, get me to 80% pick”, here’s the best of the rest:
Why? “Because I said so”!
NLW – AZ UNDER 82. But, if that ship has sailed, take Colorado over 75.5 Much better than people think. I don’t usually like more than one per division.
ALW – Mariners over 73.5. They can flirt with .500 with an “OK” Cano. Just an OK Cano, not an MVP.
I’m not sure there’s another team I’d play “Over”, except maybe the Nationals and Clev, but I’ll pass both.
But, the “top pick” is a team that I have NEVER taken. Not OVER, not UNDER.
Yup, the New York Yankees, Under 87.5.
They opened at 84 and I felt like Eddie Murphy in “Trading Places”. I watched it go up….up….up, and when it hit 87 called out UNDER as loud and quickly as I could!
- They are OLD.
- The team that makes noise in offseason is usually overrated (see Toronto in 2013).
- Lots of holes.
- USUALLY – the reason I steer people off of the Yanks UNDER, is because I always say you aren’t “shorting” the APRIL team, you have to worry about the new “JULY Team”. If start slow, you could count on them reshaping the lineup by July. They take all the big, overpaid contracts – but it improves them. (Cost isn’t important – no cap!) All the Bobby Abreu’s may be a waste of $, but they get better. So, I’m never comfortable “shorting” them.
- HOWEVER – this 5th wild card team changes dynamics. Now most teams feel they are “in the hunt” and if they can sneak into the 5, anyone can win that one game playoff! So, we didn’t see the firesales like in past. If there are no firesales, and the Yanks can’t use KC/Oak/Sea as their farm system, then they can’t reload in July. This Yankee team is not going to go over .500. (I’ll optimistically put them at 80 wins, so the UNDER at 87 will come home and get me to 80%.
Bet ONLY as much as you can afford…..TO WIN!
Now, about that Czaban pension plan?
Mr X can be followed on Twitter at @justcallmemrx